GYG Exits US and Lifts Australian EBITDA Guidance 29% to $85 Million

By Josua Ferreira -

GYG exits US market and lifts Australia guidance to $85 million EBITDA

Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG) has announced a full exit from the US market, ceasing trading at all Chicago restaurants with immediate effect as of 22 May 2026. In the same announcement, the company upgraded its Australia Segment underlying EBITDA guidance to approximately $85 million for FY26, representing 29% growth on the prior year.

The simultaneous moves reflect a deliberate capital allocation decision. Shareholder capital that had been directed toward the US is being redirected to the highest-returning opportunity in GYG’s portfolio: its domestic Australian business.

Why GYG walked away from the US — and why investors should see this as discipline, not defeat

GYG had been transparent with the market about the performance thresholds its US operations needed to meet to justify continued investment. Despite genuine progress on brand building, guest experience, and operational standards, the financial performance of the Chicago business did not meet those targeted hurdles.

Founder and Co-CEO Steven Marks spent three months on the ground in the US assessing the business before the decision was finalised.

Steven Marks, Founder and Co-CEO

“I have always been confident in the differentiation of our food and guest experience, however this was not translating to an improvement in sales momentum. Having spent the last 3 months in the US, I realised this was going to take significantly more time and capital than we had expected. In assessing the trajectory of the current network, the Board and I have concluded that the business is unlikely to deliver the performance that would justify continued investment of shareholder capital.”

The decision is US-specific. It does not alter the Board’s conviction in the global appeal of the GYG brand or its long-term ambition to expand into new geographies in a disciplined and deliberate manner.

Understanding the one-off financial impact

GYG has provided a preliminary breakdown of the financial impact from the US exit. The company was clear in separating the headline P&L charge from the actual cash exposure, which is meaningfully lower:

  • One-off P&L impact: US$30 million to US$40 million, to be recognised in FY26 full year results (subject to audit review)
  • Cash component: Not expected to exceed US$15 million
  • Cost components: Future lease liabilities, employee costs, contractual commitments, and other exit costs
  • FY26 final dividend: Not expected to be impacted by these one-off items
  • Blackout period: Amended to commence from the close of ASX trading on 30 June 2026 (previously 31 May 2026); the previously announced buyback programme remains active

Further detail on the financial impact, accounting treatment, and timing of the exit will be provided in GYG’s full year results materials.

The Australian growth engine — and what 1,000 restaurants means for investors

GYG’s long-term Australian target is 1,000 restaurants, paired with a segment underlying EBITDA as a percentage of network sales target of 10%. Segment underlying EBITDA is the metric GYG uses to measure the underlying profitability of its restaurant network, stripping out one-off items and corporate costs to reflect the true health of unit economics at the operating level. Reaching 10% of network sales would indicate the Australian business has achieved strong, scalable profitability across a materially larger store base.

The near-term indicators support confidence in that trajectory. GYG remains on track to open 32 restaurants in FY26, and the company noted that the quantity and quality of sites in its real estate pipeline continues to grow. The upgraded EBITDA guidance of approximately $85 million signals that the domestic business is performing ahead of the pace needed to sustain that long-term ambition.

As Marks stated in the announcement: “Concentrating our capital, focus and infrastructure behind this opportunity is the most effective way to compound shareholder value over the long-term.”

International franchise markets continue to perform

GYG’s two active international markets, Singapore and Japan, operate under a master franchise model. Under this structure, the capital risk of restaurant development sits with the local franchise partner, not with GYG’s balance sheet. GYG earns fees and royalties while the partner funds the build-out and operations.

Both markets are delivering strong sales growth and healthy unit economics, reinforcing the Board’s view that the GYG brand has genuine appeal beyond Australia.

Market Model Restaurant Count Recent Milestone Near-Term Plan
Singapore Master franchise 24 restaurants 24th restaurant opened this week New openings planned in next 12 months
Japan Master franchise Not disclosed Strong sales growth, healthy unit economics New openings planned in next 12 months

Steven Marks, Founder and Co-CEO

“We are very proud of our international partners in Singapore and Japan and see substantial growth ahead in each market. Beyond Singapore and Japan, we continue to believe there will be the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right models. When those opportunities arrive, we will be ready. Today’s decision is about the US specifically, it is not a statement about GYG’s global potential.”

What to watch next

Investors monitoring the GYG story should focus on the following near-term catalysts and disclosure events:

  1. FY26 full year results: Full detail on the US exit financial impact, accounting treatment, and timing to be disclosed at this point.
  2. 32 Australian restaurant openings: Track progress toward the FY26 target as a key indicator of network growth execution.
  3. Investor and analyst briefing: Held 22 May 2026 at 9:30am Sydney time; registration available via the link included in the announcement.
  4. Buyback programme: Remains active, with the blackout period now commencing 30 June 2026.
  5. Singapore and Japan: Watch for new restaurant opening announcements across both master franchise markets in the next 12 months.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Guzman y Gomez exit the US market?

GYG exited the US market because its Chicago restaurants failed to meet the financial performance thresholds required to justify continued shareholder capital investment, with founder Steven Marks concluding after three months on the ground that achieving those targets would require significantly more time and capital than anticipated.

What is the financial impact of GYG's US exit on shareholders?

The US exit will result in a one-off P&L charge of US$30 million to US$40 million in FY26, however the actual cash cost is not expected to exceed US$15 million, and the FY26 final dividend is not expected to be affected by these one-off items.

What is GYG's Australia EBITDA guidance for FY26?

GYG has upgraded its Australia Segment underlying EBITDA guidance to approximately $85 million for FY26, representing 29% growth on the prior year, with the company remaining on track to open 32 new restaurants during the financial year.

Does GYG still operate internationally after the US exit?

Yes, GYG continues to operate in Singapore and Japan through a capital-light master franchise model, with Singapore now at 24 restaurants and both markets reporting strong sales growth and new restaurant openings planned in the next 12 months.

What is GYG's long-term target for its Australian restaurant network?

GYG's long-term Australian target is 1,000 restaurants, paired with a segment underlying EBITDA as a percentage of network sales target of 10%, which management views as the benchmark for strong, scalable profitability across the domestic network.

Josua Ferreira
By Josua Ferreira
Partnership Director
Josua Ferreira holds a Bachelor of Commerce in Marketing and Advertising and brings a background in publication, business development, and ASX market storytelling. He has worked with listed companies across the resource sector and broader market, combining sharp commercial instincts with a genuine commitment to keeping investors informed.
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