Cobram Estate Olives Ltd Secures 12.1M Litres From 2026 Off Year Harvest
Cobram Estate wraps 2026 off-year harvest with 12.1 million litres secured
Cobram Estate Olives Limited (ASX: CBO) is expected to complete its 2026 Australian olive harvest within days, according to a business and harvest update dated 7 July 2026.
The Company milled over 74,300 tonnes of olives (2025: 80,000 tonnes), producing approximately 11.3 million litres of olive oil (2025: 14.2 million litres). Once contract-processed and purchased volumes are added, total olive oil available from the 2026 harvest reaches 12.1 million litres.
This was an expected “off-year” within the natural biennial cycle of olive production, not a disappointment. Importantly for investors, CBO has secured sufficient supply through to the 2027 harvest, with 2027 anticipated to be a strong “on-year.”
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2026 harvest results: an off-year that outperformed the last one
The 2026 crop reflects a well-flagged low-yield year, yet still delivered a meaningful improvement on the prior off-year. Production from CBO’s own groves is expected to reach 10.6 million litres (2025: 13.2 million litres).
Total production from the Company’s own groves and third-party fruit contract processed and marketed by CBO came in 11.9% higher than the previous off-year harvest in 2024 of 10.1 million litres. That comparison is the more relevant one for gauging performance across the biennial cycle.
While the total crop by fruit weight was only 7.1% lower than last year, oil content ran 13.9% below the long-term average. Oil content is largely determined by natural seasonal conditions and can vary by up to 15% above or below the long-term average. This result was achieved despite the short-term yield reduction associated with the completion of the Company’s replanting programme.
Olive oil quality is consistent with the Company’s expectations.
| Metric | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 (prior off-year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olives milled (tonnes) | 74,300 | 80,000 | — |
| Total olive oil produced (M litres) | 11.3 | 14.2 | — |
| Production from own groves (M litres) | 10.6 | 13.2 | — |
| Own groves + contract-processed (M litres) | 11.3 | — | 10.1 |
| Total available (M litres) | 12.1 | — | — |
The 12.1 million litre total breaks down as follows:
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10.6 million litres from CBO’s own groves
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0.7 million litres of contract-processed third-party fruit, marketed by CBO
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0.8 million litres secured from other Australian millers via supply agreements and spot purchases
Why the biennial cycle matters, and what 2027 could bring
Olive trees follow a natural “biennial” rhythm, meaning yields tend to alternate between a heavier “on-year” and a lighter “off-year.” A season of strong fruit production is typically followed by a lighter one as the tree recovers, then the pattern repeats.
For investors, this means an off-year is expected behaviour rather than a warning sign. The two-year rolling average is the more meaningful measure of the Company’s productive capacity.
Following this off-year, the 2027 Australian harvest is expected to be an “on-year.” With trees in good condition and a maturing grove age profile, CBO currently anticipates the 2027 crop will be substantially higher than the 2026 crop and higher than the previous on-year in 2025.
As previously advised, the two-year rolling average production from the Company’s Australian owned groves is expected to exceed 20 million litres when the currently planted trees reach full maturity. These projections remain subject to the usual variables inherent in agricultural production.
Water costs and El Niño headwinds
Australian water costs remain well above long-term average prices. Despite promising early rainfall in key catchment areas, the Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that Australia is now in an El Niño phase, which typically increases the likelihood of drier winter and spring conditions across parts of southern and eastern Australia this year.
This may result in lower rainfall and higher water costs throughout the next growing season.
California Olive Ranch integration on track toward US$20M synergies
The integration of California Olive Ranch, Inc. (COR) is progressing in line with expectations, with the consolidation of the USA business units now complete.
The California Olive Ranch acquisition, completed effective 26 March 2026, established CBO as a dual-hemisphere operator with the number one Californian-produced extra virgin olive oil brand in USA supermarkets, providing the platform from which these synergy targets are being pursued.
CBO expects initial annualised synergies of approximately US$12 million. Most of these synergies have already been implemented, with the balance expected to be predominantly realised by the end of FY2027. Synergies are expected to reach US$20 million by FY2030, driven by improved olive oil yields, reduced grove costs, corporate efficiencies and other operational improvements.
Last week, the CBO Board travelled to California to attend its annual USA business strategy session. The Board is encouraged by the early progress of the integration and remains confident in the long-term outlook for the USA business and the Californian olive industry.
Strategically, the Company remains focused on maximising yields from its own groves while partnering with existing and new third-party Californian growers to increase supply over time and support the long-term growth of its Californian olive oil brands.
Board Position
The Board is encouraged by the early progress of the integration and remains confident in the long-term outlook for the USA business and the Californian olive industry.
Earn-out and purchase price dispute: two open COR items
Two matters relating to the COR acquisition remain open, both carrying potential financial implications for CBO.
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Earn-out, likely not payable. Under the acquisition terms, the sellers of COR are eligible for an earn-out payment if the business achieves EBITDA of at least US$7.125 million for the six months to 30 June 2026, with a maximum possible payment of US$15.0 million. Based on unaudited management accounts to date, it has become evident that COR is unlikely to achieve the base threshold. As such, it is likely that no earn-out payment will be payable to the sellers. The final outcome will be confirmed through the Company’s audit process and advised alongside the FY2026 full year results.
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Purchase price dispute, up to US$31.9M claimed, disputed, ongoing. As part of the acquisition completion process, CBO has formally claimed a purchase price adjustment which, if determined in CBO’s favour, would result in a reduction to the purchase price paid of up to US$31.9 million. The sellers have disputed the adjustment in full, and the matter is now subject to an ongoing legal process. The outcome remains uncertain, and in the absence of a negotiated resolution, it may be some time before the final position is known.
The dispute outcome is genuinely uncertain and should not be assumed either way.
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What’s next for investors
CBO’s audited FY2026 full year results will be released to the ASX on Friday 28 August 2026, with webinar registration details to be announced in mid-August 2026.
The investment picture centres on secured supply through 2027, a strong on-year anticipated, a maturing Australian owned grove profile targeting a 20 million litre-plus rolling average at full maturity, and US synergies ramping toward US$20 million by FY2030.
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