Guidance reaffirmed as volumes show mixed four-month trend
Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) has reaffirmed its FY2027 Group guidance ahead of Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer Andrew Harding speaking at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney on 10 November 2026. The business update also introduces a new reporting structure for its freight operations.
The unchanged guidance includes:
- Underlying EBITDA of $1,725m-$1,775m
- Full year dividend of 23-24 cents per share
- Non-growth capex of $590m-$660m, including approximately $25m of transformation capital
- Growth capex of $70m-$120m
Guidance was held through a four-month period in which coal volumes fell, while network, bulk and containerised freight volumes grew compared with the prior corresponding period.
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Four months to 31 October 2026: where volumes grew and fell
Network volumes on the Central Queensland Coal Network rose 3.2%, and bulk railed and containerised freight volumes also grew. Coal was the exception, with volumes down 4.0%, driven by a 11.6% fall in New South Wales & Southeast Queensland.
Against that softer volume backdrop, Aurizon has already secured a new BMA coal haulage contract covering up to 37Mtpa across five Bowen Basin mines, starting 1 July 2028 with extensions that could run to 2040.
| Metric | Volume | Change (volume) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Network (Central Queensland Coal Network) | 74.7mt | +2.3mt | +3.2% |
| Coal | 63.5mt | -2.6mt | -4.0% |
| Coal: Central Queensland | 45.6mt | -0.3mt | -0.6% |
| Coal: New South Wales & Southeast Queensland | 17.9mt | -2.3mt | -11.6% |
| Bulk railed | 20.1mt | +1.7mt | +9.0% |
| Total Containerised Freight | 91.3k TEUs | +11.4k TEUs | +14.3% |
| Containerised Freight: National Interstate | 53.1k TEUs | +8.4k TEUs | +18.7% |
| Containerised Freight: Bulk (Central Corridor) | 38.2k TEUs | +3.0k TEUs | +8.7% |
Bulk railed volumes reflected higher iron ore volumes in Western Australia and higher grain volumes, partially offset by lower South Australian iron ore volumes. A TEU, or Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit, is the standard measure of container volume.
New Bulk & Containerised Freight segment and unit outlook
Reflecting continued customer growth in National Interstate volumes, the Containerised Freight business (currently reported in the Other segment) and the Bulk business unit have been consolidated into a new Bulk & Containerised Freight segment for financial reporting purposes. This mirrors the operational consolidation, under the continued leadership of Group Executive George Lippiatt.
Segment reporting shows how each part of a company contributes to its results. Restated FY2026 figures allow investors to compare future results with the prior year on the same basis.
| Metric | 1H FY2026 | 2H FY2026 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue and other income ($m) | 669 | 715 | 1,384 |
| EBITDA ($m) | 94 | 91 | 185 |
| EBIT ($m) | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| Railed Bulk tonnes (m) | 28.6 | 30.0 | 58.6 |
| Total Containerised Freight TEUs (‘000) | 122.7 | 114.2 | 236.9 |
For the restated Other segment, FY2026 underlying total revenue and other income was $9m, EBITDA was $(31)m and EBIT was $(31)m.
Unit-by-unit FY2027 assumptions
The business unit commentary has been updated to reflect the new reporting structure, while Coal and Network assumptions are unchanged. The key assumptions are:
- Network: EBITDA expected to be higher than FY2026, reflecting increased regulatory revenue (including the final recognition in underlying earnings of prior-year revenue cap adjustments), partly offset by higher direct costs.
- Coal: EBITDA expected to be lower than FY2026, reflecting reduced contracted volumes and yield, with hauled volumes expected to be broadly flat.
- Bulk & Containerised Freight: EBITDA expected to be higher than FY2026, with full year contributions from Bulk customer growth and the non-recurrence of one-off costs, partly offset by reduced iron ore volumes in South Australia. A break-even EBITDA result is expected for Containerised Freight.
The assumptions also include no significant disruptions to supply chains and customers. Against these unit-level expectations, FY2027 Group underlying EBITDA guidance remains unchanged at $1,725m-$1,775m.
Regulated Network earnings ultimately depend on the UT5+ access undertaking, where the QCA’s final decision backed the ten-year term to June 2037 but stopped short of approval pending minor modelling corrections.
What happens next for Aurizon
Two events are stated in the announcement:
- Andrew Harding speaks at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney on 10 November 2026.
- Aurizon releases its 1H FY2027 Financial Statements in February 2027, ahead of which the restated FY2026 results for the Bulk & Containerised Freight and Other segments have been provided.
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