Change Financial (ASX: CCA) has upgraded its FY26 guidance following a strong first-half performance that saw revenue climb 29% to US$9.3 million (A$13.9 million). The fintech’s Underlying EBITDA swung from a US$0.5 million loss in H1 FY25 to a US$1.8 million profit in H1 FY26, prompting the company to lift full-year EBITDA guidance by 15% at the midpoint and confirm expectations to be net cash flow positive for FY26.
Change Financial upgrades full-year guidance after record first half
The company delivered consecutive record revenue quarters, with Q2 FY26 generating US$4.7 million (A$7.0 million). This momentum enabled total H1 FY26 revenue to reach US$9.3 million (A$13.9 million), up 29% compared to the prior corresponding period.
Underlying EBITDA of US$1.8 million (A$2.7 million) for H1 FY26 marks a significant turnaround from the US$0.5 million loss recorded in H1 FY25. The shift demonstrates operating leverage emerging as the business scales, with incremental revenue increasingly flowing through to profitability rather than being absorbed by growth costs.
The consecutive record quarters signal sustainable momentum rather than one-off gains. Management attributed the performance to increased sales momentum and continued execution across the company’s global client base of 150+ organisations spanning 40+ countries.
The numbers behind the upgrade
Following the strong H1 performance, Change Financial has revised its full-year targets upward. The company now expects FY26 revenue to range between US$17.5 million and US$18.5 million (A$26.1 million to A$27.6 million), compared to prior guidance of US$16.5 million to US$18.0 million.
Underlying EBITDA guidance has been lifted to between US$3.1 million and US$3.8 million (A$4.6 million to A$5.7 million), representing a 15% increase at the midpoint versus previous guidance of US$2.5 million to US$3.5 million.
| Metric | FY25 Actual (US$m) | Previous FY26 Guidance (US$m) | Upgraded FY26 Guidance (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.1 | 16.5 – 18.0 | 17.5 – 18.5 |
| Underlying EBITDA | 0.2 | 2.5 – 3.5 | 3.1 – 3.8 |
The narrowed revenue guidance range, with a higher floor, suggests management has improved visibility into contracted or near-term pipeline conversion. This mid-cycle upgrade typically indicates execution risk for FY26 targets has been reduced.
Three-year growth trajectory accelerating
Change Financial’s rolling three-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) has accelerated from 22% through FY25 to 25% through H1 FY26. The company maintains a medium-to-long-term target of sustaining revenue CAGR above 20%, supported by continued investments in product development, technology infrastructure, and personnel.
The multi-year growth trajectory demonstrates consistent expansion:
- FY23 revenue: US$8.7 million
- FY24 revenue: US$10.6 million
- FY25 revenue: US$15.1 million
- H1 FY26 run rate projecting above upgraded guidance
The acceleration in growth rate suggests the company’s investments in its Vertexon payments-as-a-service platform and PaySim testing solution are driving client acquisition and revenue expansion across existing accounts.
What does EBITDA mean for growing fintechs?
Underlying EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) measures a company’s operational profitability by stripping out non-cash expenses and financing costs. For Change Financial, Underlying EBITDA excludes share-based payments, providing a clearer view of cash-generating capability from core business operations.
For scaling technology businesses, EBITDA serves as a key indicator of when a company reaches sufficient scale for incremental revenue to convert into profit rather than being reinvested entirely into growth. The metric matters particularly for investors assessing when a growth-stage company transitions from investment mode to profit generation.
Change Financial’s shift from a US$0.5 million EBITDA loss in H1 FY25 to a US$1.8 million profit in H1 FY26 signals the business has reached an operating leverage inflection point. This milestone typically precedes statutory profitability and potential capital returns to shareholders.
Key characteristics of Underlying EBITDA:
- Strips out non-cash items like depreciation and share-based payments
- Shows core operational profitability before financing decisions
- Positive EBITDA often precedes statutory profit and dividend capacity
Cash flow positive marks lifecycle milestone
The company expects to achieve net cash flow positive status for FY26, marking a significant milestone in its development. Change Financial maintains a healthy cash position with no debt, positioning the business to fund operations and growth from internally generated cash rather than external capital raising.
The transition to cash flow positive status removes near-term dilution risk for shareholders. It also provides management with optionality for capital allocation, whether through reinvestment in growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions, or potential future shareholder returns.
The operating leverage inflection point reflects Change Financial’s technology platform model, where the cost of servicing additional clients or processing additional transactions decreases as a percentage of revenue once the platform infrastructure is established.
Professional services driving near-term upside
Change Financial delivered professional services and licence revenue in H1 FY26 above historical levels, reflecting strength in the sales pipeline entering the financial year. Professional services revenue is one-off in nature, requiring opportunities to be closed and won before revenue can be recognised over the delivery period.
The company maintains a strong pipeline entering H2 FY26, though management acknowledges the specific timing of revenue recognition remains difficult to forecast on a monthly or quarterly basis. This variability is typical for project-based professional services revenue, where client timelines and implementation schedules can shift.
The elevated H1 professional services performance contributed to the guidance upgrade but also introduces some lumpiness into quarterly results. Investors should expect potential timing variations in H2 as project milestones are achieved and revenue is recognised.
What comes next for Change Financial
Following the H1 results flash and upgraded guidance, the company will complete its audited half-year accounts. This formal reporting will provide detailed financial statements and management discussion of the operational performance underlying the guidance revision.
Investors can register for Change Financial’s upcoming quarterly webinar through the company’s investor hub. The session will provide an opportunity to hear directly from management and ask questions about the guidance upgrade, pipeline visibility, and strategic priorities for H2 FY26.
Near-term catalysts for the stock include:
- Completion and release of audited H1 FY26 financial statements
- Quarterly investor webinar with management Q&A access
- H2 FY26 execution against upgraded guidance parameters
- Continued pipeline conversion across the 150+ client base managing 45+ million cards
The mid-cycle guidance upgrade suggests management has line-of-sight to contracted or near-term revenue supporting the revised targets. The company’s transition to cash flow positive status, combined with accelerating revenue growth and EBITDA expansion, positions Change Financial at an inflection point where operational scale begins translating into sustained profitability.
“Executive Director, Tom Russell” has released a short video statement regarding the guidance upgrade, accessible through the company’s investor hub at investors.changefinancial.com. Investors are encouraged to watch the commentary for management’s perspective on the H1 performance and FY26 outlook.
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