Trajan Maintains $170M Revenue Guidance as Q2 Hits Record $45.4M

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Key Takeaways

Trajan Group Holdings (ASX: TRJ) maintains FY26 guidance of revenue exceeding $170M and nEBITDA exceeding $16M as Q2 momentum offsets challenging first quarter, with record quarterly revenue of $45.4M and implemented cost savings supporting the outlook.

  • Management's confidence in maintaining full-year guidance is supported by tangible margin improvement initiatives already implemented
  • The Q2 recovery with record $45.4M revenue and nEBITDA jump to $4.5M signals operational turnaround
  • Components & Consumables segment delivered reliable 6.1% growth, providing stability during capital equipment volatility
  • Near-$11M Capital Equipment order book de-risks H2 revenue delivery

Trajan Group Holdings Limited (ASX: TRJ) has released its Trajan FY26 Guidance Trading Update, maintaining full-year revenue guidance exceeding $170.0M and normalised EBITDA (nEBITDA) exceeding $16.0M despite a challenging first quarter. The analytical science and device company reported H1 FY26 revenue of $84.1M, representing 3.8% growth on the previous corresponding period of $81.0M.

Trajan maintains FY26 guidance as Q2 momentum offsets challenging first quarter

The trading update, released on 05 February 2026 ahead of half-year financial results, presents what management describes as a “tale of two quarters.” While Q1 FY26 was particularly soft, Q2 demonstrated a return to growth with record quarterly revenue of $45.4M.

H1 nEBITDA came in at $5.0M, down from $7.9M in the prior corresponding period. However, Q2 nEBITDA reached $4.5M, up substantially from just $0.5M in Q1, creating momentum heading into the second half.

Managing Director and CEO Stephen Tomisich emphasised the company’s operational flexibility in navigating external challenges. “Trajan’s global footprint, and the operational flexibility it enables, is a strategic competitive advantage. Enhancing an in region for region footprint enables us to better deal with tariff, and potential retaliatory tariff, situations into the future,” he stated.

The maintained guidance signals management confidence in margin expansion initiatives and the second-half pipeline, despite the softer H1 EBITDA performance.

Understanding normalised EBITDA and why H1 pressures are largely non-recurring

Normalised EBITDA strips out one-off items to reveal underlying operating performance. For Trajan’s H1 result, three specific cost impacts reduced nEBITDA by $2.9M, with most factors considered temporary rather than structural.

The H1 FY26 nEBITDA headwinds comprised foreign exchange revaluation of balance sheet net trading assets totalling $1.3M, investment in “in region for region” capabilities plus escalated freight costs exceeding $0.4M, and net US tariff recovery timing differences adding a further $0.4M impact that management states is not anticipated to recur.

Item Impact Recurring Status
FX revaluation of net trading assets $1.3M Non-recurring (timing)
In-region capability investment & freight $0.4M Partially recurring
US tariff recovery timing differences $0.4M Non-recurring

Once these transitory headwinds are accounted for, the underlying quarterly improvement becomes apparent. The nEBITDA jump from $0.5M in Q1 to $4.5M in Q2 demonstrates the business has turned a corner operationally.

Segment performance reveals resilience in consumables and capital equipment recovery

Components & Consumables delivers consistent growth

The Components & Consumables segment is expected to deliver 6.1% revenue growth in H1, providing ballast during capital equipment volatility. Tomisich noted the segment’s reliability, stating: “We often speak of the resilience of our Components & Consumables business, and it stood by us once again in H1.”

This consistent performance steadied the overall business during the challenging first quarter.

Capital Equipment regains momentum with loaded order book

Capital Equipment revenue declined 2.8% in H1 compared to the prior corresponding period, with weakness concentrated in Q1 as flagged at the October 2025 AGM. The segment’s recovery trajectory demonstrates improving conditions:

  1. Q1 showed a distinct decrease versus prior corresponding period
  2. Q2 recovery reduced the half-year decline to just 2.8%
  3. Order book grew by $2.8M during H1 to finish at $10.8M heading into H2

The near-$11M order book provides tangible revenue visibility and de-risks second-half delivery. Tomisich acknowledged that “Margin in our Capital Equipment segment continues to be an area of focus for management.”

Margin expansion initiatives position Trajan for stronger second half

Project Neptune cost reductions in headcount and facilities, implemented in November and December 2025, are expected to lower the H2 cost base by approximately $0.8M. Pricing actions effective 01 January 2026 are targeted to add $1.3M.

Combined with the Q2 nEBITDA run rate of $4.5M, these executed initiatives provide a clear path to full-year guidance delivery. The cost reductions are already implemented and pricing changes are in effect, representing concrete actions rather than aspirational targets.

Stephen Tomisich, Managing Director and CEO

“Trajan’s global footprint, and the operational flexibility it enables, is a strategic competitive advantage. Enhancing an in region for region footprint enables us to better deal with tariff, and potential retaliatory tariff, situations into the future.”

Outlook and what investors should watch

Trajan has maintained its FY26 guidance with revenue expected to exceed $170.0M and nEBITDA exceeding $16.0M. Management acknowledges “many moving parts” in the outlook while emphasising team focus on the right opportunities.

The H2 setup comprises multiple tailwinds supporting guidance delivery:

  • Q2 nEBITDA run rate of $4.5M
  • Project Neptune savings of approximately $0.8M
  • Pricing actions adding $1.3M
  • Capital Equipment order book of $10.8M

Tomisich concluded: “While there are many moving parts in our outlook, both external and internal, we have a strong team, focussed on the right opportunities to drive the long-term revenue, margin and profitability growth of the Trajan business.”

The maintained guidance, backed by tangible margin levers and visible revenue pipeline, provides a credible path to full-year delivery despite the challenging start to FY26.

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John Zadeh
By John Zadeh
Founder & CEO
John Zadeh is a seasoned small-cap investor and digital media entrepreneur with over 10 years of experience in Australian equity markets. As Founder and CEO of StockWire X, he leads the platform's mission to level the playing field by delivering real-time ASX announcement analysis and comprehensive investor education to retail and professional investors globally.
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